Case Study about Long Term Delphi Accuracy
Abstract: We evaluated the long-term accuracy of predictions from a Delphic poll of the future of the mental health profession. Six hundred participants provided predictions about the likely occurrence and probable time courses for 18 scenarios that could possibly have occurred over the 30-year interval between 1981 to present. Each of the panelists was polled twice with distributional feedback from the first poll provided on the second poll questionnaires. The data from the second polling was used to make predictions regarding the future of various issues that may have affected the mental health profession over the forecast interval. It has now been 30 years since the original poll was conducted; the purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the original group predictions.
Description of the Study: Anderson, Parente, and Gordon used the Delphi Method to predict the future of the mental health profession over a 20-year time frame and beyond. Six hundred participants, 100 from each of six mental health professions participated. The professions included, Psychiatrists, Psychologists, Social Workers, Mental Health Counselors, Mental Health Administrators, and Psychiatric Nurses. The polling was done by mail and consisted of two rounds with median and distributional feedback provided to all participants on the second poll. The forecast questionnaire consisted of 18 scenarios that surveyed six different areas that were of concern to the mental health profession at the time: quality of graduate training; certification and licensure, accreditation practices; third-party reimbursement to practitioners at various training levels, employment prospects, and future trends.
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